"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
- Ludwig von Mises

Monday, July 18, 2011

Update on Future Posts

I will be posting again on a somewhat regular basis - a few times a week at least.  I have been busy lately with personal and business matters.  But I want to mention that my main beliefs discussed on this blog - those of  peak oil, the inevitable terminal end of credit based monetary systems, and a return to a gold standard, as well as the likelihood of an increase in resource wars are ideas that I still hold as inevitable.  And mind you, these ideas are based on a gradual systemic change that is going on in the world around us.  These ideas are based on an ongoing process that is happening right now.  It's not that these things will suddenly happen.  They are happening, at various stages, right now.

I am very pessimistic to say the least.  In early 2007, I believed that the architecture of international trade and finance was breaking apart.  Despite temporary solutions that only serve(d) to delay the inevitable, an end game still exists - it is unavoidable.  There are times that I fear that an investment strategy may be pointless, and the hide-in-the-bunker crowd/the end is nigh may be on to something.

Regardless, we are going through some severe structural changes in the global economy.  A de-globalization, if you will.  Such a process is an unwind of a previous system based on expansionary (cheap) credit and easy access to cheap energy and cheap labor.  The reversal of such a process carries many political and social and economic implications for a world based on hypercomplexity.  As US historian Joseph Tainter has said: "Collapse is the rapid simplification of society."

What does that mean?  It depends on where you live, I guess.  Increased gang warfare in Mexico and the central urban areas of US cities, massive protests in North Africa, shutdowns and strikes in Greece (which I witness firsthand), etc...  These disruptions are happening in different places, in different ways, at different times.  But all the "events" are symptoms that will lead to a greater end game.  They are not independent happenings.

It is not a Greek crisis.  It is not an EU crisis.  It is not a Northern Africa/Middle East crisis.  It is not a Wall Street crisis.

It is something more.  It is the end of a world we once knew, and the uncertain beginnings of a new world that is emerging.